Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 3.870705 4.548503 5.299188 6.190732 7.219119 8.366510 9.742041
2025-09-07 2.860371 3.777594 4.904447 6.383436 8.265445 10.571539 13.601683
2025-09-14 2.169933 3.163880 4.496059 6.395334 9.013519 12.472483 17.360280
2025-09-21 1.713408 2.722021 4.178901 6.407149 9.692056 14.311149 21.239396
2025-09-28 1.390257 2.384140 3.917997 6.412811 10.310785 16.093001 25.216729
2025-10-05 1.268956 2.322994 4.043672 6.990921 11.824268 19.317790 31.643589
2025-10-12 1.107322 2.157591 3.966026 7.218227 12.798483 21.811665 37.215860
2025-10-19 0.976329 2.016574 3.898738 7.439075 13.770530 24.384937 43.164632
2025-10-26 0.842779 1.842388 3.739879 7.466549 14.399856 26.440896 48.451645
2025-11-02 0.702914 1.626537 3.465582 7.235117 14.525808 27.631612 52.360763
2025-11-09 0.575313 1.409032 3.149692 6.871068 14.347560 28.246033 55.289075
2025-11-16 0.492098 1.270592 2.968851 6.742915 14.593194 29.638107 59.736205
2025-11-23 0.423833 1.154683 2.821308 6.671972 14.964160 31.344287 65.025775
2025-11-30 0.389116 1.112878 2.830568 6.939791 16.066018 34.583202 73.591955
2025-12-07 0.343679 1.033891 2.741065 6.974097 16.676872 36.908537 80.588863
2025-12-14 0.303814 0.960539 2.651887 6.994373 17.256705 39.224713 87.784177
2025-12-21 0.268865 0.892649 2.563986 7.003112 17.808646 41.532543 95.172803
2025-12-28 0.266206 0.918185 2.719545 7.631025 19.861287 47.238998 110.218719
2026-01-04 0.246759 0.888573 2.724138 7.877820 21.040552 51.146967 121.740572
2026-01-11 0.228870 0.859754 2.725978 8.117351 22.229241 55.184151 133.890979
2026-01-18 0.205596 0.807711 2.653330 8.147175 22.900676 58.106869 143.810133
2026-01-25 0.176633 0.728741 2.487806 7.896309 22.827060 59.291839 149.887836
2026-02-01 0.147871 0.642405 2.283249 7.501572 22.325953 59.408967 153.497127